NBA Finals 2023, what to watch for
Somehow the NBA found itself with a Finals series that doesn’t force us to sit through over-dramatic storylines, age-old Lakers Celtics rivalries, or overhyped stars. For casuals it’s boring, for hoop heads it’s utopia. We have the basketball nerds’ favorite Denver Nuggets, with the humble and pass-first superstar Nikola Jokic versus the Miami Heat, whose greatest asset is not a player but their coach Erik Spoelstra.
In game one, despite not playing their best game, the Nuggets remained in control apart from a cute little 11–0 Heat run at the beginning of the fourth quarter. But the Spoelstra-led Heat has proven to be resilient and adaptable. Expect hot shooting streaks, rotation changes, better execution, and defensive scheme adjustments. Here are some things to watch for in the upcoming games.
Jokic absolutely wrecking any and all defenses
Jokic outplayed the should-have-been Defensive Player Of the Year Anthony Davis in the Western Conference Finals. In the Finals he faces an even shorter defender in Bam Adebayo and a way shorter team in the Heat. This makes it easier to do what he does best, use his court vision to dismantle any defensive scheme Spoelstra throws at him. Jokic looked dominant with an NBA Finals debut record 14 assists, finishing 27, 14, and 10.
Denver was up 24–16 before Jokic even took his first shot but had four assists. A strategy the greats have used to get his teammates warmed up and involved early. His passes are precise not only in hitting their target but also have the perfect pressure and speed.
In response to the Heat’s 11–0 run cutting their deficit to nine, Jokic had a kick-out to KCP, speed-balled it to an open Aaron Gordon under the basket, then drew a foul in three consecutive possessions. All the while making it look easy.
Heat shooting
The Heat could not miss in from three in rounds one and three against the Bucks and Celtics, so it was expected they would regress to the mean at some point. The team overall shot an exactly average 33% from three in game one. Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent, and Haywood Highsmith all shot a good 50% (11/22 in total). However, Caleb Martin and Max Strus, the shooters they depend on for volume outside shooting shot a combined 1–11 from three. Expect the Heat to throw up way more threes, and some wild hot streaks at various points this series.
Haywood Highsmith
Highsmith started 11 games throughout the season, but was thrown into the fire and thrived in game one. He scored 18 points, including two threes at opportune times. He was active on offense and made nice cuts for easy baskets. Brought in to add more size to the Heat defense, if he is also going to produce offensively, expect him to continue to get more minutes and have more moments in the next couple of games.
Free throw attempts
A lot was made on social media of the disparity in free throws (Heat two to Denver’s 20). The Heat’s shot selection and lack of aggression are entirely to blame. Bam Adebayo shot a lot of weird mid-range jumpers, Jimmy Butler only had one shot attempt off a drive the entire game. Neither of which are a recipe for getting free throws. The Heat will need to fix this for this series to be competitive. Jimmy Butler has proven to be elite at foul drawing and we should see him respond with his Butler brand aggression by driving and throwing his body around looking for calls.
Heat defensive schemes
The story of the series will be Spoelstra trying out new defensive ways to respond to Jokic. In game one, Jokic got the ball towards the top of the key which brought the Heat’s tallest player Bam Adebayo up and away from the basket. This freed up all sorts of room for Jokic to hit cutting teammates with his pristine passing. The Heat may try to change the matchups to get more rim protection.
The heat guarded Denver’s transition well for the most part, having Adebayo beating everyone down the court. The few times Denver did get easy transition baskets were after Adebayo’s baseline jumpers took him out of position.
Spoelstra’s funky zone defense is known to change the tone in games. When implemented in round three versus the Celtics, the setup would force center Al Horford to awkwardly get the ball around the free throw line and either turn it over or jack up a brick. In Finals game one the zone was a part of what sparked the early fourth-quarter run. Denver surprisingly looked out of rhythm as soon as the Heat set it up. But Jokic is not Horford, and this is the Finals. Jokic is the butcher of zones, with his elite passing and shooting. Expect the zone to not last too long next time Spoelstra rolls it out. Or, Spoelstra could roll it out only against the Nuggets’ second unit with Jokic out.
Enjoy game two and the rest of the series hoop heads and basketball nerds, this is our time.
Originally published at http://planetfomo.com on June 4, 2023.